Anyone keeping up with the news cycle knows we’re living in scary times. Wars, terrorist attacks, natural disasters, you name it – these events are probably happening somewhere on the planet.
Consider the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on society. The virus not only caused the death of millions of people globally, but it also wreaked havoc on the economy, particularly the global supply chain. Supply chain disruptions have dominated news headlines since the pandemic’s onset. These issues caused shortages of essential items, including manufacturing materials, health care devices, consumer goods, and more.
While these disruptions caused major problems, they have the potential to grow even more serious in the future and cause total social, political, and economic upheaval. What would happen in this scenario? How would the public react? Would we stick around long enough to recover?
Survivalists, also known as preppers, adopt a lifestyle anchored in preparing for unforeseen disasters or destruction. Every survivalist has their own reason for living this way. If supply chain disruptions cause global turmoil, how would survivalists react? If a SHTF (“shit hits the fan”) scenario occurs, will survivalists be able to adapt?
Continue reading to learn more about supply chain disruptions, how these issues impact the general public, and how survivalists would adapt to societal changes.
What Triggers Supply Chain Disruptions?
In a modern supply chain, businesses aim to find the least expensive items and most abundant sources. As a result, this creates a dispersed supply chain for companies, giving them a competitive advantage and keeping them profitable.
However, a distributed supply chain comes with its drawbacks. They create several complicated interdependencies that can be hard to manage. Think of it like the domino effect; if a shortage occurs in one part of the supply chain, nearly all other areas of the supply chain will be impacted.
So, what triggers supply chain disruptions? These triggers fall into four categories: political, climate, economic, and cyber. Here are some examples in each category:
- Political: Changes in government affairs, conflicts, or wars
- Climate: Public health issues, dangerous weather conditions, and natural disasters
- Economic: GDP fluctuations and commodity variability
- Cyber: Malware threats and digital security incidents
In March 2022, American Productivity and Quality Center (APQC) identified the top causes of supply chain disruptions, including:
- Labor shortages
- Public health concerns
- Government regulations
- Product availability
- Transportation issues
- Price increases
A supply chain is also subject to experiencing multiple disruptions simultaneously, weakening its resilience and making it a harder challenge for companies to overcome.
How Serious Supply Chain Disruptions Impact the Public
Supply chain bottlenecks are a multifaceted phenomenon, but it’s clear that the pandemic caused an unprecedented decline and subsequent recovery of the global supply chain and economy.
When these disruptions occur, consumers pay higher prices for items and notice empty shelves, longer delivery times, and an increase in delayed, canceled, or incomplete orders. Additionally, vulnerable populations experience the worst of supply chain disruptions.
Low-income families, racial and ethnic minorities, people with disabilities, uninsured people, senior citizens, people without homes, and those with chronic health conditions, including severe mental illness, are vulnerable groups facing dire consequences of supply chain issues. As a result, this can lead to domestic or international conflict within and between nations and overall instability.
If companies are unprepared to handle supply chain issues, the magnitude of these problems becomes increasingly worse. While it’s understandable that the nature of a supply chain is prone to disruptions from time to time, it’s scary to think about what could happen if an end-of-world scenario occurs.
Black Swan Events and Their Role in Global Markets
The average person may not know about the nuances of the global supply chain and how disruptions could impact their day-to-day life. However, many would agree that the pandemic shone a spotlight on the fragility of the supply chain and how a worldwide public health emergency caused myriad challenges.
Some experts refer to the COVID-19 pandemic as a “black swan event.” Black swan events are impossible to predict, rare, and go beyond what one would normally expect to happen. They have severe consequences, especially on global markets and investments. Common examples of well-known black swan events include the housing crash during the financial crisis of 2008, Zimbabwe’s historical case of hyperinflation that year, and, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although people have categorized the pandemic as a black swan event, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the essayist who popularized the term, disagrees with that sentiment. In a New Yorker article, Taleb mentions that he feels “irritated” when people call COVID-19 a black swan event because he and other notable people, such as Laurie Garrett and Bill Gates, predicted it. Taleb suggests the term should not describe any bad thing that comes as a surprise.
Is Preparing for Black Swan Events or Supply Chain Disruptions Possible?
While it may be possible to prepare for supply chain issues by building resilience and mitigating risks, it’s impossible to prepare for a black swan event. The event would not be considered a black swan if someone could predict it.
Professionals in various industries and financial experts often rely on standard forecasting tools to attempt to predict when a black swan event will happen. An accurate prediction would offer them a sense of security and valuable insights into how to prepare for it.
However, unless someone is using advanced predictive analytics tools, such as those powered by artificial intelligence (AI), these forecasting systems may not be entirely accurate.
There’s no question that black swan events are devastating – however, historically speaking, markets have recovered from past black swan events. Likewise, supply chain disruptions tend to be short-term.
With the state of the world right now, people are becoming increasingly concerned that a future catastrophic event, even worse than a black swan event, could occur. It’s hard to know if a SHTF event will occur, but what would happen if it really does?
How the Government Encourages Disaster Preparedness
Some well-known government agencies, including the Red Cross and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), publish advice, suggestions, guides, and tools regarding disaster preparedness on their respective websites.
For example, one FEMA webpage titled “Individual and Community Preparedness Activities” includes downloadable documents with real-world scenarios and exercises people can use to prepare. Here are some of the events FEMA discusses:
- Active shooter situations
- Tornadoes
- Wildfires
- Hurricanes and floods
- Extreme heat
- Pet preparedness
- Shelter-in-place
- Earthquakes
- Pandemic influenza
- Power outages
FEMA and other organizations aim to provide some level of government assistance to victims of these events. However, many people believe federal and state governments would not be capable of providing sufficient support to the general public.
Rather than put faith in the government, manufacturers, and industry leaders, many survivalists invest time and energy into improving their survival skills and prepping for themselves and their families.
Shifting Perceptions of Survivalists During the COVID-19 Pandemic
A 2020 article from The Guardian titled, “We mocked preppers and survivalists – until the pandemic hit,” puts it perfectly: people living this unconventional lifestyle were better off during lockdowns and quarantine than their unprepared counterparts.
Reality TV shows like “Doomsday Preppers” highlight the so-called “radical beliefs” some survivalists have regarding future catastrophic events. The show takes a deep dive into the world of prepping by showing a prepper’s underground bunker, a massive supply of food and water, a radio, medical supplies, batteries, and other essential items.
Some preppers decide to homestead, whether it involves supplying their own food and animals or building a workspace to make shoes and clothing.
Reality TV shows, however, are often criticized for inaccurately portraying real-life situations, whether implicitly or explicitly. There are staged scenes, producers coach participants before filming, and final edits often mislead the audience. One TV critic, Neil Genzlinger, described “Doomsday Preppers” as an offensive show that makes the prepper worldview an easy target for ridicule.
Because of this, anyone interested in survivalism and prepping is typically on the receiving end of ridicule, mockery, and harsh judgment. However, this inevitably changed during the pandemic. While non-preppers dealt with supply shortages of toilet paper, food, water, masks, medical items, and other necessities at the local grocery store, preppers were basking in the glory of being well-prepared and self-sufficient with enough food, water, and critical supplies.
With low supply and high demand for essential items at the height of the pandemic, panic-buyers purchased several of the same product for themselves or their families, making it impossible for other customers to buy the things they needed.
The general perception of survivalists changed because of the pandemic. One reason is that survivalists do not panic-buy; they purchase their items in small quantities over time and before disaster strikes.
It’s no surprise that preppers gained respect from their counterparts for being proactive and wholeheartedly adopting a “not if, but when” mentality.
Survivalism: Becoming Increasingly Mainstream
While the current global supply chain is reeling from the pandemic, it is expected to recover eventually. But the timeline is still uncertain.
According to monthly updates from the New York Federal Reserve’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), global supply chain constraints are decreasing. In fact, the index is down 57% from December 2021. While this is good news, it’s important to mention that these supply chain pressures are still at historically high levels due to the pandemic.
Homesteading, prepping, survivalism – whatever you like to call it – is becoming more mainstream. The Home Depot sells dehydrated “just add water” survival food buckets. The Kardashian family once shared which brand of bugout bags were their favorite.
The effects of global warming and climate change, political conflict overseas, the monkeypox outbreak, wildfires, and even a massive sinkhole in Chile, which is big enough to swallow the White House, are some of the major reasons why more and more people are exploring the survivalist lifestyle.
How Survivalists Would Handle Serious Supply Chain Issues in the Future
In addition to the impending global crises mentioned above, modern manufacturing relies on just-in-time inventories and lean production practices. Manufacturers adopt these business models because they boost profits and cut costs. These concepts make sense financially, but they weaken the supply chain’s overall resilience, especially if a disruption occurs.
The pandemic proved that these models are unsustainable in a turbulent economy with raw material fluctuations, inflation, and high demand. Suppose a more significant, disastrous, or deadly event occurs. In that case, the global supply chain could crumble, leaving people worldwide with limited or no access to basic life necessities.
On the other hand, if preppers experience the effects of a significant disruption to the supply chain, it would likely look very different. Survivalists would undoubtedly have an advantage over the average person who failed to stock up on food, water, or any other important supplies.
It’s tough to determine what type of disruption and its severity would cause such a devastating blow to the supply chain. One positive aspect of the pandemic is that it gave us a taste of what life would be like if something more serious or catastrophic happened.
The panic-buying could become more violent or even deadly among customers trying to stock up on goods. In March 2020, Business Insider reported that three Australian customers fought over toilet paper, one of the most popular items people bought out in a panic.
More profound disruptions could occur in the future, which is one possible reason why survivalism is now taken more seriously. Survivalists are self-sufficient, independent, highly skilled, and prepared individuals capable of navigating short-term and long-term emergencies.
Tips for Adapting to a SHTF Scenario
If you’re a prepper, here are some general tips you should keep in mind if you want to get ready for a potential SHTF scenario in the global supply chain:
- Reduce your reliance on the lean production supply chain (as much as possible)
- Increase your water storage (perhaps build a well on your property, like survivalist Howard Mintz)
- Have systems in place to treat, process, and filter water
- Learn to dehydrate, pickle, can, or freeze-dry foods
- Buy extra canned food
- Consider gardening
- Buy in bulk and avoid wasting food
- Secure your home and fallback shelter
- Get ahead on your finances by cutting costs and finding cheaper alternatives to common, expensive products or services
This is not an exhaustive list – take time to assess your prepping practices, take inventory of your current stockpiles, buy extra items on your next grocery trip, and determine how else you can improve your level of preparedness.
Preparing for the World Shifting Into Survival Mode
Survivalists often refer to one well-known idiom: “Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.” The current state of the supply chain is a mixed bag – recovery is expected, but there’s no way to predict what will happen.
Wouldn’t you want to be prepared if the supply chain never reaches pre-pandemic levels? If so, now is a good time to take the extra measures listed above to build your overall resilience against future economic shocks.
[Note: This was a guest post.]