Experts vary on what motivated the head of the personal Wagner military group to march thousands of his guys towards Moscow, an episode with lessons to be discovered for both Russia and the West, writes Joe Lauria.
By Joe LAURIA
2 weeks considering that the strange occasions in Russia on the weekend of June 23-25 there still remain various analyses of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s 36-hour adventure on the road to Moscow and its consequences.
Was it a genuine mutiny or coup attempt? Was he working with Western or Ukrainian intelligence? What is Prizgozhin’s and the Wagner group’s future? And, most importantly, why did he do it?
The drama ended when Prigozhin aborted his march on the capital, reversing his column of 4,000 or two Wagner men. With Russian special forces in Moscow arrayed to meet him at the city gates, and Chechen forces headed to Rostov-on Don, which he partially inhabited, reason took hold as Prigozhin recognized death awaited him and his men.
The anguish in London and Washington was palpable. They thought they were on the brink of attaining the concept aim of their war against Russia: toppling Vladimir Putin. They are still pressing the line that Putin was irrevocably compromised by the event which Russia is a precariously unstable nation.
The Offer
The president of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko, worked out a deal to end the crisis. In return Russia– for the minute anyway– dropped its criminal charges of mutiny versus Prigozhin.
He lost his post and was apparently banished to Belarus. Today there are even doubts about that. Lukashenko said on Thursday that Prigozhin is a “totally free male.” He stated, “Perhaps he went to Moscow, maybe somewhere else, but he is not on the area of Belarus.”
The New York City Timesreported on the exact same day that Prigozhin may be utilizing a look-alike:
“A Pentagon official who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the fact that of the sensitivity of the situation later confirmed that Mr. Prigozhin had been in Russia, between Moscow and St. Petersburg, throughout most of the period since the mutiny. The official stated it was uncertain if Mr. Prigozhin had ever gone to Belarus because he obviously utilizes body doubles to mask his movements.”
On his MOATSTelevision show, George Galloway on June 25 aired a quick video of a male who looked precisely like Prigozhin sleeping on a park bench in Minsk the day after the rebellion ended. (One would believe Prigozhin might manage to reserve his double a hotel room, if it was undoubtedly his double.)
Prigozhin was not used amnesty as had the Wagner soldiers that participated in the mutiny. Those who didn’t take part were given the option of signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin being allowed to stroll free in Russia without amnesty tosses his status and his future into confusion.
Even if he is being allowed his freedom, his main needs in the mutiny of sacking Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Personnel Gen. Valery Gerasimov have not so far been successful.
Was It a Coup Attempt?
Considered that Prigozhin was overtly only seeking Shoigu and Gerasimov’s heads, and not Putin’s, it can be argued that his gambit was not an attempt to topple the whole federal government.
Geopolitical expert Alexander Mercouris on The Duranchannel, on the other hand, contends that if he had gotten as far as seizing the Defense Ministry, which Mercouris says was out of the question, he would have effectively taken power from Putin.
Previous U.S. Militaries counterintelligence workplace Scott Ritter told Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s podcastthat it was treason and a clear coup attempt. He stated Prigozhin had actually set up cells in Moscow to participate in the overthrow however Russia security services broke them up prior to they might act.
There are experts who argue that this was not a coup attempt at all. Retired U.S. Col. Douglas MacGregor, a fierce critic of Washington’s Ukraine policy, thinks Prigozhin was rather sending Putin a message to carry out the war in Ukraine more powerfully.
For what it’s worth, on the first day of the move towards Moscow Prigozhin firmly insistedthe action was not “a military coup, however a march of justice.”
Putin himself calledPrigozhin’s action many things: a “grave criminal offense,” “an armed mutiny,” “blackmail,” “betrayal,” “terrorism,” an “internal revolt” and “a knife in the back of our country and our individuals.”
He also called it “treason.” Putin stated:
“Inflated aspirations and individual interests have resulted in treason– treason versus our nation, our individuals and the common cause which Wagner Group soldiers and leaders were fighting and craving shoulder to shoulder, together with our other units and soldiers.”
The Surovikin Secret
Western media evenly provided the episode as the best hazard to Putin’s government given that he took workplace as president on New Year’s Eve 1999. The New York City Times, unsceptically priced estimate U.S. intelligence officials, reporting that Gen. Sergei Surovikin, deputy leader of Russian forces in Ukraine, knew about the coup attempt beforehand but not did anything to stop it, implying that he was in on it.
CNN reportedon June 30 that Surovikin was a “V.I.P. member of Wagner.” Surovikin was replaced in January by Gerasimov as overall leader of forces in Ukraine.
The anti-Putin, English language Moscow Times,published an unofficial report that Surovikin was jailed. The Associated Press reported the same, pricing quote unnamed sources. But as The Wall Street Journal reported:”Surovikin was the very first senior leader to condemn the plot … and advise Prigozhin to stop hismales. Forces under Surovikin’s command carried out airstrikes
on the Wagner column, the just such attack by regular troops versus the insurrectionists.” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Sergei Surovikin(left). (Presidential Executive Workplace of Russia)Why Did He Do It? Prigozhin had released numerous extremely public attacks over the previous months on Shoigu and Gerasimov, accusing them of corruption and not providing enough ammo for Wagner’s fight in Bakhmut. Prigozhin stated this caused the unneeded deaths of ratings of his fighters. Moscow tolerated his shenanigans, even after Wagner completed its takeover of Bakhmut in Might. Prigozhin’s rhetoric racheted up the day before his revolt when he said Russian intentions
for intervention in Ukraine were fake. He said Ukraine was not planning an offensive on Donbass in February 2022 and
that demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine were simply excuses. It sounded like words from authorities in Kiev, London or Washington. There appear to have actually been numerous intentions to Prigozhin’s reckless relocation. The first was an obviously ridiculous strategy to arrive at the Ministry of Defense and require the elimination of Shoigu and Gerasimov. A second intention appeared to be a desire for power discussing megalomania. The former chef and
catering service(to Putin and the MOD )was put in charge of the Wagner mercenary company though he had zero military experience. (Prigozhin likewise ran the Web Research study Company, which purchased$100,000 in Facebook ads during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign and figured plainly in the Russiagate fraud.) Putin said recently that Prigozhin’s$1 billion agreement to feed the Russian armed force had actually been cancelled. Wagner was set up as a personal military company in 2014 to lawfully prevent the oversight and regulation of regular Russian
military branches, though it was equipped and funded by the Ministry of Defense, Putin confirmed in public remarks last Monday. As a legally separate entity from the Russian federal government, Wagner troops ran in Crimea and in defense of Donbass beginning in 2014 (without the requirement of main Russian military intervention )versus the Kiev coup federal government’s military attack on Donbass after it stated independence from Ukraine. No doubt partially because they were fed up with Prigozhin’s
continuous criticisms, the Ministry of Defense set a July 1 deadline for Wagner to be absorbed into the MOD, making them legally part of the Russian armed force. Prigozhin understood this would end his career as
head of the Wagner force, which is being liquified. That was likely the prime motive, particularly the timing for his revolt. This, combined with his bravado and hatred of Shoigu and Gerasimov, led Prigozhin on a roadway to mess up, though he thought he was headed to Moscow. There was yet another factor driving Prigozhin, according to MacGregor. The most strident criticism of Putin in Russia is that he’s been too soft on Ukraine, that the military operation has actually been too cautious. These critics wish to see Russia smash through southern Ukraine to take Odessa and reach the Romania border, if not take Kiev itself.(This might be easier stated than done, offered NATO’s equipping and training of the Ukrainian army, the increased Russian and civilian casualties that would be included and the stress it would place on Russian weaponries production. )According to MacGregor, among these hard-line critics of the go-slow war is Prigozhin. But instead of freely slamming Putin for this state of affairs, Prigozhin zeroed in on Shoigu and Gerasimov, blaming them for the
piecemeal military method. MacGregor informed Galloway on June 25, the day the disobedience passed away:”I wouldn’t call it a coup. I think what took place is that Mr. Prigozhin … who is a popular blowhard and has actually frequently said outrageous things
, reached a conclusion that I believe a great deal of individuals in the senior ranks of
the Russian army have reached, and that is … initially, that this war has actually dragged on too long, and they desire Putin to take definitive action to end it. And secondly, I believe the worry is the United States will be tempted to intervene in Western Ukraine with its Polish allies, and others potentially, if this does not pertain to an end. … Both Prigozhin and Wagner are incredibly popular with the Russian people. They see him as the sort of aggressive leader they want on the battlefield in this war with Ukraine. So I anticipate now what we will see is a really effective offensive unleashed versus the Ukrainians. And secondly I believe you are going to see some changes at the top of the command structure. I would expect Gen. Surovikin to increase as an outcome of this. “This was prior to reports of Surovikin
‘s”arrest.”Mercouris, on the other hand, said
Putin had”lanced the boil that Prigozhin and Wagner represented, and it has probably once and for all eliminated any idea on the part of the nationalist fringe– the people who are hostile for numerous factors to Gerismov and Shoigu and other figures within the Russian Defense Ministry– … that they can require Putin’s hand through any kind of political agitation.”At press time, Gerasimov and Shoigu were still in their posts. Was He Working for Foreign Intelligence? Due to the fact that Prigozhin appeared to be fulfilling the West’s objectives there has been speculation he might have been working with either American, British or Ukrainian intelligence, or all of the above. Ritter stated categorically on his Substack page and in podcast interviews that Prigozhin was dealing with foreign intelligence:”Let there be no doubt in anybody’s mind– Yevgeny Prigozhin has ended up being a witting agent of Ukraine and the intelligence services of the cumulative West. “He wrote:”Prigozhin’s shenanigans, which were played out in intimate information on social media, caught the attention of pro-Ukrainian info
warfare experts, who started promoting the story
of Prigozhin– a former found guilty with zero political experience– presuming a management position in Russia. Prigozhin himself seemed to feed off this concept. While publicly denying any such aspiration, Prigozhin continued his public trolling of Shoigu and Gerasimov. … Eventually in time Prigozhin’s shenanigans captured the attention of Ukrainian intelligence, and their British and US counterparts. The egotistical requirement for attention, coupled with grand notions
of self-importance, made Prigozhin an ideal prospect for recruitment
by a hostile foreign intelligence service. A
monetary element– basic greed– can be added to this behavioral design too.”Ritter then added this qualifier:”The collusion in between Prigozhin and the Ukrainians, while unproven at this
point, appears apparent in retrospect.”The New York City Times and other outlets reported that U.S. intelligence knew Prigozhin’s plans to rebel days in advance.” The possibility that a major nuclear-armed competitor of the United States could come down into internal turmoil brought with it a brand-new set of risks,” the Timesreported. In spite of this, the U.S. did not alert Russia to what they knew, which might have maybe avoided a nuclear crisis, as Ritter stated in a Consortium News piece on Monday. Possibly most considerably, the so-called Discord leaks of U.S. intelligence exposed that Prigozhin was prepared to offer Ukraine intelligence Russian troop positions in exchange for canceling its defense of Bakhmut. Long before the mutiny, The Washington Post reported on May 14:”Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s leaders
withdrew their soldiers from the location around Bakhmut, he would provide Kyiv details on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to assault them. Prigozhin communicated the proposition to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has preserved secret interactions during the course of the war, according to formerly unreported U.S. intelligence documents dripped on the group-chat platform Discord.”
The U.S. raised suspicions by going out of its method to say it had absolutely nothing to do with the revolt. President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the U.S. ambassador in Moscow all made statements to that impact. MacGregor disagreed that the previous Wagner chief was in cahoots with Russia’s opponents. He said:”I see no evidence that Mr. Prigozhin was made a representative by MI6 or the CIA or anybody else. Anybody who understands the Russians understands that any senior officer or leader or leader is surrounded by various FSB informants. The concept that he could have offered out even if he wanted to seems ridiculous.” Ritter pointed out in his CN piecethat the Russian
federal government is investigating the matter. If Prigozhin was undoubtedly working for Western or Ukrainian intelligence they clearly did not get what they spent for. Lessons Putin dealing with nation on June 26.(Kremlin.ru )For Russia: Do not duplicate the error of employing a private army. Numerous experts indicated a 500-year old lesson from Niccolo Machiavelli that Russia disregarded: “Mercenaries
and auxiliaries are ineffective and hazardous; and if one holds hisstate based on
these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, enthusiastic and without discipline, unfaithful. … I wish to show further the infelicity of these arms [i.e., mercenaries] The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you can not trust them, since they constantly aspire to their own success, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intents; however if the captain [i.e.,
the leader of the mercenaries] is not skillful, you are destroyed in the normal way [i.e., you will lose the war]”MacGregor challenged the entire concept. He informed Galloway: “I decline the idea
that these people are mercenaries. I would compare them to the French Foreign Legion.
The French Foreign Legion includes great deals of non Frenchmen in many cases, but they have sworn loyalty to the French state and the French country, and no one has fought harder and more loyally for France than the French Foreign Legion. I would say you have something very similar in the Wagner group. These
are still Russians extremely, but there arenumbers of Serbs or some Germans or others in the group, and theytoo have sworn obligation to the Russian state. And as far as we can tell, none believed that they were marching on Moscow to eliminate Putin.
On the contrary, they saw themselves as going to Moscow to rescue Putin from what was widely considered bad advisors, bad councilors who have actually held up the Russian offensive and triggered this war to drag out beyond the point of factor.” Whether they were mercenaries or not, the Kremlin and the MOD tried to get away with a dodgy legal maneuver and it triggered them worldwide shame and nearly a bloody civil dispute.
For the West: Wait until an operation is over prior to popping the corks. Cries about a Russian civil war being under method, such as
tweets from previous U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul, which roared that” The fight is now on. This is now a civil war,”blew up in their faces when Prigozhin turned tail. The larger lesson would be not to meddle in other countries ‘internal affairs however that would be too much to ask. The entire Russian country had actually rallied around Putin, leaving him in a much more powerful position, exposing the continuing line that
Russia is now a dangerously unstable country. Western
federal governments and pundits plainly suffered more shame from this episode than Putin did. However ideologues rarely find out any lessons. consortiumnews.com