M. K. BHADRAKUMAR
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s gos to abroad are thoroughly choreographed events, given their optics locally. Possibly, this is much more so today as general elections loom ahead and in Hiroshima, Modi was taking the stage after the crushing defeat in the Karnataka election, which was as much political for the judgment BJP as individual for Modi himself.
But the optics were fantastic. President Biden who is a past master in the art of flattery stooped to dominate Modi, even seeking an autograph and saying that he envied the latter’s “popularity”.
It should be one of the paradoxes of our disjointed times that Hiroshima, a drowsy, southwestern coastal city, was handpicked as the setting for the G7 topfor its importance to “send a strong message” versus nuclear weapons. But it is a pointer too the United States is still the only country that ever used the atomic bomb as a weapon, when it dropped “Little Young boy” on Hiroshima in 1945– quite needlessly as historians because concluded– eliminating an approximated 140,000 people and turning the theory of nuclear warfare into a scary truth.
Hiroshima was turned on its head to censure Russia and China. Innuendos were galore at the G7 top loaded with world leaders who preach one thing and practice something completely different. The UK PM Rishi Sunak flew into Hiroshima after providing depleted uranium munitions to Kiev, which soon blew up in the central Ukrainian city of Khmelnytsky, resulting in a significant boost in gamma radiation levels that might infect the earth in surrounding areas for years.
The G7 was dripping with doublespeak. The erstwhile colonial powers waxed eloquently about “economic coercion” but craftily excluded South Africa as unique invitee and rather selected Comoros. Why Comoros? Because, Comoros’ most considerable worldwide relationship is with the erstwhile colonial power France, which will ensure its good behaviour at Hiroshima.
To be sure, the negative spectacle at Hiroshima couldn’t have left Modi’s attention. His “undiplomatic” remarksat the Working session 9 of the G7 Top– on the ludicrous truth of the UN being a simple “talking store”; the important requirement for respect for the UN Charter, International Law and sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries; the unilateral efforts to change the status quo and so on would have made western leaders present in his audience squirm with embarrassment.
Even if that was not Modi’s intent, what he specified– commas, semi-colons and full stops included– actually epitomised the United States’ ongoing illegal occupation of one-third of the area of Syria, which was, by the way, one of the original members of the UN given that 24th October 1945. The G7 presents a worthless spectacle, indeed. However
, it was Modi’s conference with Ukraine’s president Zelensky that brought out his impressive methods of communication. Even the insipid MEA readoutwritten in staccato English highlights the flavour of their short discussion.
Modi made 3 key points: one, for him, Ukraine war is not a political or economic issue however “a problem of humanity, of human values.” Two, India supports dialogue and diplomacy “to discover a method forward” and is willing to help in conflict resolution. Three, India will continue to supply humanitarian support to individuals of Ukraine.
We do not know how Zelensky managed this tricky discussion. Possibly, he actually limited himself to brief Modi “on the present scenario in Ukraine.” Modi’s remarks message that he adhered to India’s neutrality and neatly side-stepped the tendentious concerns concerning the genesis of the Ukraine crisis or the intricacies of Russia’s fight with the West, leave alone the core problem of NATO’s expansion into Ukraine (which Zelensky inherited) and the country’s loss of sovereignty.
Instead, Modi took to high ground and harped on the human suffering due to the war and worried the primacy of “discussion and diplomacy”. We may never know whether this would have caused uneasiness in Zelensky’s mind, although finger pointing wouldn’t have been Modi’s objective.
Ironically, but for a series of mistakes on the part of Zelensky, the war wouldn’t have actually erupted or intensified to the present level of violence– his rejection of the Minsk contracts that attended to provincial autonomy to the Donbass within a federal union; his obduracy to pursue a military solution to Donbass’ alienation; his retraction from the Istanbul handle late March in 2015 within weeks of Russian intervention due to the rear seats driving by the US and UK who had their own program to require program change in Moscow.
Modi, maybe, got brought away to stake his personal prestige in a conflict resolution in Ukraine. Plainly, there is no light at the end of the tunnel. Neither will Biden accept the spectre of military defeat and Ukrainian state’s disaster nor will Russia compromise on what it thinks about sees to be an existential war.
The government should not be delusional about a charming possibility of India leading the West and Russia the door that never really opened in the post-cold war period into a rose garden. It simply isn’t there. Neither has India the qualifications nor the influence to be a peacemaker.
What is actually disheartening is that an excellent opportunity was lostfor Modi to hold the hands of Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and pool their intellectual resources– two giants who champion the International South. But then, Washington may have queered the pitch by thwarting Zelensky’s consultation with Lula. (Zelensky failed to appear.)
Modi travelled to Hiroshima with an eye on his approaching state check out to the US (June 21-24.) Besides, there have been signals from the Biden Administration recently that a kinder look at India’s pleas for innovation transfer may be possible.
Western pressures will advance Modi federal government to quit its neutrality on Ukraine. The European Union has actually recently waded into the subject officially. (See my post EU calls out India on Russia sanctions.) However trust India to push back. The surest sign of it is Modi’s reversion to “hug diplomacy,” the appeal of EAM Jaishankar’s abrasive style to BJP’s “core constituency” in the social media regardless of
The heart of the matter is that the strategic ties that bind India and Russia symbolize an equally beneficial partnership that is fully in conformity with global law and imbued with a “win-win” spirit and mutual trust and confidence in a volatile global climate of which Ukraine is just a sign.
The objective truth is that the India-Russia energy cooperation, which is an eyesore for the West, may even deepen, offered the mutual interest. Bloomberg reported in the weekend that oil trade apart, in April, China and India also represented more than two-thirds of Russia’s coal exports to Asia and that set to additional boost in the coming weeks due to the emergence of El Nino, a repeating warm climate pattern that could cause droughts in the area.
According to a study in the distinguished journal Science, this year’s El Nino is expected to develop between May and July and is most likely to be specifically strong. Bloomberg estimated an expert opinion:
“The worst place to be today amidst these searing temperature levels is South Asia … When you can’t even look after your people’s basic needs, it’s very hard to care excessive about worldwide affairs … [South Asians] are asking themselves: would I rather risk falling afoul of the US or give up high discounts on energy?”