The Contrarian Trade of the Years: The Dollar Refuses to Die

Which is more valuable: Wall Street’s debt/asset bubbles or the international empire? You can’t have both, so pick wisely.

The consensus makes sense: the U.S. dollar is doomed since the Federal Reserve and the Treasury will conjure trillions of brand-new dollars out of thin air to prop up the status quo entitlements, monopolies, cartels and debt/asset bubbles, and given that little of this issuance actually increases productivity, all it will accomplish is the dilution/ devaluation of the currency.

Simply put, the dollar will lose its buying power as the unavoidable result of the requirement to print and obtain ever-increasing amounts to pay interest on existing debts, fund Bread and Circuses to keep the masses soothed and keep pumping up the property bubbles in stocks, real estate, bat guano, etc to preserve the illusion of prosperity.

This damage of the dollar is TINA writ big: there is no alternative. The only method to keep the status quo from imploding is to print as lots of trillions as are needed, and this undoubtedly devalues the currency to the point of insignificance.

OK, we get it: TINA so the dollar dies. But let’s consider TINA from the viewpoint of the Deep State. Destroying the buying power of the dollar ruins the engine of America’s power, which is the ability (“expensive advantage”) to conjure “money” out of thin air and be able to trade this “money” for cobalt, steel, semiconductors, and so on supplied by other countries.

If the dollar is ruined by over-issuance, then how do we purchase the cobalt and other goodies we require to keep the aircraft carriers and all their airplane in working order? This is an issue, for if we can’t conjure “money” out of thin air and convince everybody it still have worth, then America’s international impact dissipates into thin air.

So what the consensus proposes as unavoidable is monetary trickery will ruin America’s worldwide influence and its prosperity, and there’s no alternative. In other words, the Deep State will just toss up its collective hands and surrender its empire so Wall Street can continue inflating its bubble of phantom wealth, even as that damages the dollar, America’s global empire and eventually its prosperity.

Is this actually inevitable? Isn’t it plausible that the Deep State might rouse itself from its different distractions and take notice that when the dollar loses purchasing power, the Deep State loses all its power? Are there actually no grownups left in the room who can make this fundamental observation?

For the sake of argument, let’s assume there are a couple of adults left who comprehend that the dollar is the linchpin of the whole empire therefore it’s really worth safeguarding. And let’s likewise assume these couple of grownups comprehend that considerable amounts of parasites, leeches, speculators, and so on will need to be compromised, and all manner of politically sacrosanct bubbles, skims, rip-offs, rackets, monopolies and cartels will need to be destroyed, much to the dismay of the parasites, leeches, speculators, etc who have actually gotten tremendously wealthy off these bubbles, skims, scams, rackets, and so on.

It appears impossible that the parasites, leeches, speculators, and so on at the top of the heap could be lowered. It’s certainly a stretch, given their entrenched power. It seems much more likely that the video game of incrementally devaluing the dollar will continue indefinitely.

But what’s the endgame of this devaluation? Is it really up until now away that the banquet of repercussions will never ever be served? These sorts of things have a way of collecting momentum as self-reinforcing feedbacks start, and then the repercussions are dished out much faster than anyone believed possible.

Which is better: Wall Street’s debt/asset bubbles or the worldwide empire? You can’t have both, so select wisely.

The contrarian bet is the Deep State lastly awakens from its struggling sleep and chooses the Empire is better than the bubbles, skims, rip-offs, rackets, etc therefore the dollar will need to be protected regardless of the cost to those gaining from its decline. Extremely few are willing to take that bet now, however let’s get comfy and see the printing-borrowing-trillions/ devaluation video game for a few more years and see how it plays out.

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