While much is made about the alleged absence of assistance for President Maduro (the millions of votes his celebration got will never ever be acknowledged by the U.S.), it’s less understood that the opposition is deeply undesirable.
By Leonardo FLORES
For the first time in four years, every major opposition party in Venezuela took part in elections. For the fifth time in four years, the left won in a landslide. Citizens chose 23 governors, 335 mayors, 253 state lawmakers, and 2,471 local councilors. The governing United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) won at least 19 of 23 governorships (one race remains too close to call) and the Caracas mayoralty in the November 21 “mega-elections.” Of the 335 mayoral races, the vote count has actually been completed in 322 of them, with PSUV and its union taking 205, opposition unions 96, and other parties 21. Over 70,000 candidates ran for these 3,082 workplaces, and 90% of the vote was counted and verified within hours of surveys closing. Turnout was 42.2%, eleven points greater than last year’s parliamentary elections.
Here’s why chavismo, the motion behind Venezuela’s Bolivarian Revolution, won:
1. Excellent governance in health, housing and food. Venezuela’s health policiesin reaction to Covid-19 have actually been excellent. The expectation in the U.S. was that the coronavirus would overwhelm Venezuela’s healthcare system, which has been ravaged by years of sanctions. And yet, per million population, Venezuela registered 15,000 cases and 180 deaths. For the sake of contrast, the figures in the U.S. are 146,000 cases/million and 2,378 deaths/million, Brazil’s are 103,000 and 2854, and Colombia’s are 98,000 and 2,481. Unlike images we saw in Ecuadoror Bolivia, there were no bodies of victims left on the streets, nor were there overflowing morgues like in New York.
In regards to real estate, the Venezuelan federal government has built 3.7 million homes for working-class families over the previous ten years, most of which were constructed and delivered by the Maduro administration while under sanctions.
As fatal as the sanctions have been, things would be considerably even worse were it not for Venezuela’s essential social program in the previous 5 years: the CLAPs. These include boxes of food and other needs, some of which are produced in your area, which are packaged and distributed by neighborhoods themselves. Seven million Venezuelan households receive CLAP boxes on a monthly basis, out of a country of 30 million people. Not just has this program contributed in keeping people fed, but it has actually also invigorated the base of chavismoand reconnected the federal government with grassroots after the PSUV’s defeat in the 2015 legal elections.
2. The economic circumstance is enhancing. According to an August 2021 surveyby opposition pollster Datanálisis, 50% of Venezuelans consider that their lives have actually improved compared to the previous year or two. In spite of sanctions that have caused a 99% dropin federal government earnings, the Venezuelan economy is supporting. Inflation is down to single digitsfor the very first time in 4 years. Credit Suisse projected 5.5% growth in 2021 and 4.5% development in 2022. Oil production hit an 18-month high in October, assisted by a trade handle Iran.
3. The left is joined (mainly). The PSUV didn’t win the elections alone, they were joined with 8 other left parties in a union called the GPP (Fantastic Patriotic Pole). The PSUV itself held internal primaries in August, the only party to do so. Over half the GPP candidates were females, 52%, while another 43% were youth. In general, 90% of the prospects hadn’t held office in the past, suggesting a renewal of the celebration from the grassroots. However, this marked the 2nd election in a row in which the left wasn’t totally unified. A coalition that consisted of Venezuela’s Communist Party ran its own ticket. These parties got less than 3% of the vote in the 2020 parliamentary elections and their choice to run individually appears to have actually had no effect on the gubernatorial races.
4. The opposition is divided. Never known for their unity, the Venezuelan opposition suffered a significant split as a result of some celebrations going with boycotting elections and trying to topple the federal government, while others preferred a democratic course. Despite all the significant celebrations participating in these elections, the opposition was split into 2 primary unions, the MUD (Democratic Unity Roundtable) and the Democratic Alliance. The vast bulk of the 70,000 prospects are in the opposition and they were running prospects against each other in nearly every race. Of the 23 gubernatorial races, six were won by PSUV prospects with less than 50% of the vote and by less than 6 points– more unity in between the MUD and Democratic Alliance could have made the distinction.
A count of the votes in the gubernatorial and Caracas mayoral races reveals the PSUV union taking 46% of the total vote, with the rest split in between the different oppositions. A united opposition could win in Venezuela, but “unified opposition” is an oxymoron.
5. The opposition is deeply unpopular. While much is made about the supposed lack of assistance for President Maduro (the millions of votes his celebration got will never be acknowledged by the U.S.), it’s less known that the opposition is deeply out of favor. Here are the disapproval scoresfor a few of the opposition’s crucial figures: Juan Guaidó, 83% disapproval; Julio Borges (Guaidó’s “Foreign Minister), 81%; Leopoldo López (Guaidó’s coach and mastermind of coup efforts), 80%; Henry Ramos Allup (longtime opposition leader), 79%; Henrique Capriles (2012 & 2013 presidential election loser), 77%; and Henri Falcón (2018 governmental election loser), 66%. All of these but Falcón belong to the MUD.
The MUD union invested years declaring they represented a majority, a claim which could not be confirmed by their strategy of electoral boycotts. Nevertheless, their go back to the electoral procedure just marked a ten-point boost in citizen turnout compared to 2020. Moreover, the MUD positioned below other opposition parties in 9 of 23 states and in Caracas. The MUD just won among the three governorships taken by the opposition. This might be due in part to the extensive rejection of U.S. sanctions. The MUD has actually repeatedly endorsed lethal sanctions in spite of the fact that 76%of Venezuelans reject them.
The MUD enjoys the political, monetary and logistical assistance of the United States and the EU, while members of other opposition celebrations have been denounced and approved by the U.S. for negotiating with the Maduro administration. These elections must put the Biden administration on notice that continuing to support the MUD, and in particular, the fiction of Guaidó as “interim president”, is a failed policy.