Maidan in Almaty? Oh yeah. But it’s complicated.
So is that much worry and loathing everything about gas? Not really.
Kazakhstan was rocked into turmoil virtually overnight, in concept, because of the doubling of rates for melted gas, which reached the (Russian) equivalent of 20 rubles per liter (compare it to approximately 30 rubles in Russia itself).
That was the spark for across the country demonstrations spanning every latitude from top company center Almaty to the Caspian Sea ports of Aktau and Atyrau and even the capital Nur-Sultan, formerly Astana.
The central federal government was required to roll back the gas price to the equivalent of 8 rubles a liter. Yet that only prompted the next phase of the protests, requiring lower food rates, an end of the vaccination campaign, a lower retirement age for moms with many children and– lastly– routine change, complete with its own motto: Shal, ket! (“Down with the old male.”)
The “old man” is none besides national leader Nursultan Nazarbayev, 81, who even as he stepped down from the presidency after 29 years in power, in 2019, for all useful purposes stays the Kazakh gray eminence as head of the Security Council and the arbiter of domestic and foreign policy.
The prospect of yet another color revolution undoubtedly comes to mind: perhaps Turquoise-Yellow– reflecting the colors of the Kazakh nationwide flag. Particularly because right on hint, sharp observers learnt that the typical suspects– the American embassy– was already “warning” about mass demonstrations as early as in December 16, 2021.
Maidan in Almaty? Oh yeah. However it’s complicated.
Almaty in chaos
For the outdoors world, it’s hard to comprehend why a significant energy exporting power such as Kazakhstan needs to increase gas rates for its own population.
The reason is– what else– unchecked neoliberalism and the proverbial free market shenanigans. Since 2019 melted gas is digitally traded in Kazakhstan. So keeping rate caps– a decades-long customized– quickly became difficult, as producers were constantly faced with offering their item below expense as intake escalated.
Everybody in Kazakhstan was expecting a price walking, as much as everyone in Kazakhstan utilizes melted gas, specifically in their converted cars and trucks. And everyone in Kazakhstan has a cars and truck, as I was informed, ruefully, throughout my last check out to Almaty, in late 2019, when I was attempting fruitless to find a taxi to head downtown.
It’s rather telling that the demonstrations began in the city of Zhanaozen, smack into the oil/gas hub of Mangystau. And it’s also telling that Discontent Central immediately turned to car-addicted Almaty, the country’s real service hub, and not the isolated, federal government infrastructure-heavy capital in the middle of the steppes.
At first President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev seemed to have been captured in a deer facing the headlights circumstance. He assured the return of rate caps, set up a state of emergency/curfew both in Almaty and Mangystau (then nationwide) while accepting the present government’s resignation en masse and designating a faceless Deputy Prime Minister, Alikhan Smailov, as interim PM till the formation of a new cabinet.
Yet that could not potentially contain the unrest. In lightning quick succession, we had the storming of the Almaty Akimat (mayor’s office); protesters contending the Army; a Nazarbayev monument demolished in Taldykorgan; his previous home in Almaty taken control of; Kazakhtelecom detaching the whole country from the web; several members of the National Guard– armored vehicles included– signing up with the protesters in Aktau; ATMs gone dead.
And after that Almaty, plunged into complete mayhem, was essentially taken by the protesters, including its worldwide airport, which on Wednesday early morning was under additional security, and in the evening had ended up being occupied territory.
Kazakh airspace, on the other hand, had to compete with an extended traffic jam of private jets delegating Moscow and Western Europe. Despite the fact that the Kremlin noted that Nur-Sultan had actually not requested for any Russian aid, a “special delegation” was quickly flying out of Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov carefully worried, “we are persuaded that our Kazakh good friends can individually resolve their internal problems”, including, “it is essential that nobody interferes from the outside.”
Geostrategy talks
How could everything hinder so quickly?
Already, the succession game in Kazakhstan had been seen mainly as a hit across Northern Eurasia. Local honchos, oligarchs and the comprador elites all kept their fiefdoms and incomes. And yet, off the record, I was told in Nur-Sultan in late 2019 there would be major problems ahead when some local clans would pertain to collect– as in challenging “the old man” Nazarbayev and the system he put in location.
Tokayev did release the proverbial call “not to succumb to internal and external justifications”– that makes sense– yet likewise ensured that the government “will not fall”. Well, it was currently falling, even after an emergency situation meeting trying to resolve the tangled web of socioeconomic problems with a promise that all “genuine needs” by the protesters will be fulfilled.
This did not play out as a traditional routine change scenario– a minimum of at first. The configuration was of a fluid, amorphous state of mayhem, as the– fragile– Kazakh organizations of power were simply incapable of understanding the wider social malaise. A competent political opposition is non-existent: there’s no political exchange. Civil society has no channels to express itself.
So yes: there’s a riot goin’ on– to quote American rhythm ‘n blues. And everybody is a loser. What is still not exactly clear is which contrasting clans are flaming the protests– and what is their program in case they ‘d have a shot at power. After all, no “spontaneous” protests can pop up at the same time all over this vast country essentially overnight.
Kazakhstan was the last republic to leave the collapsing USSR over three years ago, in December 1991. Under Nazarbayev, it right away engaged in a self-described “multi-vector” diplomacy. Up to now, Nur-Sultan was skillfully positioning itself as a prime diplomatic conciliator– from discussions on the Iranian nuclear program as early as 2013 to the war in/on Syria from 2016. The target: to strengthen itself as the ultimate bridge between Europe and Asia.
The Chinese-driven New Silk Roads, or BRI, were officially released by Xi Jinping at Nazarbayev University in September 2013. That took place to swiftly dovetail with the Kazakh principle of Eurasian financial integration, crafted after Nazarbayev’s own government costs job, Nurly Zhol (“Brilliant Course”), developed to turbo-charge the economy after the 2008-9 financial crisis.
In September 2015, in Beijing, Nazarbayev aligned Nurly Zhol with BRI, de facto propelling Kazakhstan to the heart of the brand-new Eurasian integration order. Geostrategically, the biggest landlocked country on the planet ended up being the prime interplay area of the Chinese and Russian visions, BRI and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
A diversionary tactic
For Russia, Kazakhstan is much more tactical than for China. Nur-Sultan signed the CSTO treaty in 2003. It’s a key member of the EAEU. Both countries have massive military-technical ties and carry out strategic space cooperation in Baikonur. Russian has the status of an official language, spoken by 51% of the republic’s citizens.
A minimum of 3.5 million Russians live in Kazakhstan. It’s still early to speculate about a possible “revolution” tinged with national liberation colors were the old system to ultimately collapse. And even if that took place, Moscow will never ever lose all of its substantial political influence.
So the instant issue is to ensure Kazakhstan’s stability. The demonstrations should be distributed. There will be plenty of financial concessions. Irreversible destabilizing mayhem just can not be tolerated– and Moscow understands it by heart. Another– rolling– Maidan is out of the concern.
The Belarus equation has shown how a strong hand can run miracles. Still, the CSTO agreements do not cover assistance in case of internal political crises– and Tokayev did not appear to be inclined to make such a demand.
Until he did. He called for the CSTO to step in to restore order. There will be a military enforced curfew. And Nur-Sultan may even confiscate the possessions of United States and UK business which are allegedly sponsoring the protests.
This is how Nikol Pashinyan, chairman of the CSTO Collective Security Council and Prime Minister of Armenia, framed it: Tokayev invoked a “risk to national security” and the “sovereignty” of Kazakhstan, “triggered, inter alia, by outside interference.” So the CSTO “decided to send out peacekeeping forces” to stabilize the situation, “for a minimal period of time”.
The typical destabilizing suspects are popular. They might not have the reach, the political impact, and the necessary quantity of Trojan horses to keep Kazakhstan on fire indefinitely.
At least the Trojan horses themselves are being very specific. They desire an immediate release of all political detainees; routine modification; a provisional government of “trusted” people; and– what else– “withdrawal of all alliances with Russia.”
And then all of it comes down to the level of ludicrous farce, as the EU starts getting in touch with Kazakh authorities to “appreciate the right to serene protests.” As in allowing total anarchy, burglary, robbery, numerous lorries damaged, attacks with attack rifles, ATMs and even the Duty Free at Almaty airport completely ransacked.
This analysis (in Russian) covers some key points, discussing, “the web has lots of pre-arranged propaganda posters and memos to the rebels” and the reality that “the authorities are not cleaning up the mess, as Lukashenko performed in Belarus.”
Slogans so far seem to originate from plenty of sources– extolling everything from a “western path” to Kazakhstan to polygamy and Sharia law: “There is no single goal yet, it has not been determined. The result will come later on. It is typically the very same. The elimination of sovereignty, external management and, finally, as a guideline, the formation of an anti-Russian political party.”
Putin, Lukashenko and Tokayev spent a very long time over the phone, at the effort of Lukashenko. The leaders of all CSTO members are in close contact. A master game plan– as in a huge “anti-terrorist operation”– has already been hatched. Gen. Gerasimov will personally supervise it.
Now compare it to what I gained from 2 various, high-ranking intel sources.
The very first source was specific: the whole Kazakh adventure is being sponsored by MI6 to produce a brand-new Maidan right prior to the Russia/US-NATO talks in Geneva and Brussels next week, to prevent any kind of contract. Substantially, the “rebels” preserved their national coordination even after the internet was disconnected.
The second source is more nuanced: the usual suspects are attempting to force Russia to pull back against the collective West by developing a major diversion in their Eastern front, as part of a rolling technique of turmoil the whole time Russia’s borders. That might be a creative diversionary tactic, but Russian military intel is seeing. Closely. And for the sake of the usual suspects, this much better may not be interpreted– ominously– was a war justification.