By Patrick ARMSTRONG
Up until now the Russian military operation in Ukraine has actually been a reconnaissance in force preceded by the damage of the supplies and head offices of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by standoff weapons. The object being to suss out where the Ukrainian forces are, to surround them, to examine existing Russian intelligence against truth and, at the same time, damage recognized headquarters, air and naval assets, materials and ammunition depots. And, possibly, there was the hope that the speed and success (Russian/LDPR forces dominated an area of Ukraine about the size of the UK in the first week) would require an early end (aka recognition of reality).
At the minute they are preparing for the next stage. The long column that so consumed the “professionals” on CNN is the preparation for the next phase. And that is this: “You didn’t get the hint, so now we need to strike you”. The fact that the column has been sitting there indicates that the Russians understand they have total air superiority. Second of all it is a message to the Ukrainian militaries that it’s over, give up. (And one should always remember that the Russians/Soviets have always been the best at tactical deception, so who knows what’s in fact there versus what the images reveal?)
As far as I can see they’ve produced 3 cauldrons (encirclements). Probably the most important one is the one around Mariupol where the main concentration of Azov, the principal nazi force, is. Another is being established around the main concentration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces dealing with LDPR. And there seems another developing to the east of Kiev. An incredibly cauldron of all 3 is visible. The nazis will be exterminated; the normal Ukrainian soldier will be enabled to go home. The headache question is the number of ordinary Ukrainians will be totally free to choose.
The issue for the Russians is city fighting. They do not want to have a Raqqa in which every building is damaged, everyone killed and solitudinemis declared to be pax. They know that at the end of the day there will still be Ukrainians and they will want them to be friends: Washington can develop privacies far away, however Moscow can not create them nearby. This greatly complicates their problem when they attempt to clear the nazis out of Mariupol knowing that the nazis are using the city’s individuals as hostages. The very same problem exists, to a lower degree, in the other cities of Novorossiya. My guess is they will surround most cities and hope that Zelinsky & Co come to their senses. However I fear that the Mariupol battle will be dreadful.
There are some minor indications, on Day 8, that Ukrainian arbitrators are understanding that neutrality is something they need to consent to. I likewise see the realisation creeping up on the American side.
The ultimate Russian goal is not visible. By this I mean the supreme strategic aim; we know what the grand tactical aim is. Are the Russians planning to produce a Novorossiya which will be independent or are they intending to create a Novorossiya which will be a bargaining chip with rump Ukraine? I believe the response depends on what Zelinsky and Kiev (and the residents) choose. In about a week’s time, an independent Novorossiya will exist and Russia will continue to have the hammer.
I would anticipate large-scale surrenders of the Ukrainian Army to start in the next 24/48 hours (Chechen forces currently declare one and have a remarkable collection of “prizes” to prove it). A considerable percentage of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is now surrounded and, as is normal (vide Sun Tsu) the Russians have left them an exit.
GRAND STRATEGY
The impotence of the EU and NATO is clear to everybody (Well, OK, not anyone on CNN, or in the United States Congress or in the halls of power in the West. However they are not the whole world). In this respect, I suggest enjoying Riyadh– Abdul Aziz was great at seeing how the wind blew and one can assume his descendents are too.
The 97, or whatever they were, fighter aircrafts that were excitedly revealed, are certainly not coming. The no fly zone can’t be “declared”. The Chechens have actually gotten a lot of MANPADs that NATO provided. All that NATO assistance will get you is damage when you fight the war it suckered you into and an additional unique Christmas card when you’re defeated and messed up.
We are seeing the collapse of post Cold War triumphalism, “end of history”, “unilateralism” and all the rest of it. Reality is biting, and biting hard. All you need to do is enjoy CNN’s parade of talking heads and “experts” speculating about how insane Putin is: theydo not comprehend, therefore heneed to be nuts. For the West, as it has been, it’s over. The confusion, the bullshit, the boasting, the hysteria, the restrictions: the West has nothing left in the locker. Pour Russian vodka down the toilet, fire a vocalist and director, alter the name of a beverage or a salad, restriction felines or trees, sanction a Russian plutocrat and steal his private yacht, wear a blue and yellow tee shirt. Worthless. And do not, under any situations, allow a Russian outlet to tempt the sheeple with “disinformation”. Similar to the USSR but stupider. And who believed stupider was even possible?
Judo is about deception and using the opponent’s strength versus him. Putin, the judoka, has judoed the West into suicide. Put your cash in our banks, we can confiscate it; put your properties in our area, we can steal them; use our money and we can cancel it; put your luxury yacht in our harbour, we can pirate it; put your gold in our vault, we can grab it. That is a lesson that will resound around the globe. A naked illustration that the “rules-based global order” is just that we make the rules and order you to obey them. In 2 or 3 weeks everybody on the planet who is on the possible Western hit list will have moved his properties out of the reach of the West. Xi will permit himself a small smile.
Regarding Western sanctions against Russia, I think there’s an extremely simple response to that: last week 1000 cubic metres of gas cost $1,000; todayit’s over two times that. Next week it certainly won’t be more affordable. Ditto for aluminum, potash, titanium, wheat. Russian airlines lease their airplanes; now what? Russian rocket motors. What the people in the West do not understand is the ruble is the currency the Russians utilize insidethe country but the price of oil and gas is the Russian currency outsidethe country. I am astounded at the stupidity: they’re cutting their own throats and ruining their own economies.
Russia sits back and chuckles: fly into area on your own broomstick.
The world order has altered. Week 2.