A provocation at the al-Aqsa enclosure by one or other of the severe Inhabitant cults, is not probable– it is unavoidable, Alastair Crooke writes.
The post WW2 policy iceberg– like that of the Artic Cap– may still be strong– however only just. And, like the genuine Ice Cap, it too is breaking down. It no longer serves function for our internationalist oligarchs. Little bits of it are falling apart; some are purposefully being offered up (i.e. Gates/Fauci). Though, to extend this metaphor to geo-politics would be to state that we may be on the cusp of a multi-facetted waterfall of the post-war, ‘forever’ political certainties– some planned; numerous not; however all disruptive.
On the one hand, the U.S. outsized military establishment requires a brand-new raison d’être– just as Russia and China reveal their wise new weapons. The ‘larger play’, obviously, is that the social decay eating away at the fabric of America has actually become all too visible– and damaging to the desired recasting of the American mission (Green-washing and now LBGTQ ‘washing’— as systems to first of all disrupt, and after that reset, politics and geo-finance).
Belligerent ‘competition’ with China is ramped as the methods to reunite this fragmented America. Yet, however much Washington keeps pressing Europe and Japan to decouple from both China and Russia, a Cold War 2.0 on two simultaneous fronts has extremely few takers. The (self-harming) EU justifications of China and Russia over Belarus or the Uyghurs– as naively woke, as they are– are no mishap, nevertheless.
They are intentionally disruptive. As the U.S. acquiesces to the inevitable– and accepts the reality of Russia-China-Iran primacy in Central Asia– Group Biden plans to pivot out, as finest it can, from the area to China, leaving the EU hectic with keeping Russia off-balance, and isolated.
Bizarre EU policies are not hard for international Big Finance to summon: The EU started life as a cartel (and now boasts double the business lobbyists than occupy ‘K Street’ in DC). In its present iteration, the EU tail of little anti-Russian states can easily be activated to act as the ‘tail wagging the EU canine’– particularly as this permits the Euro-bureaucracy to play the tail versus the larger EU states– and consequently advance their own unique ‘Brussels ideology’ of centrally-guided empire.
Less noticed perhaps– amidst all this other sound and theatrics– is that the Middle East may be close to its own separate ‘conclusive minute’. In a nutshell, simply as Iran has shocked the world by building real deterrence– with tens of countless deeply buried clever missiles, instead of ‘nukes’, surrounding Israel– the latter is dealing with the outright collapse of its Netanyahu ‘certainties’.
Which is to state, ‘the collapse’ is that of the meme that the Palestinian concern has been put to sleep; that ‘the world’ has ‘proceeded’; which the ‘defeated’ Palestinians ultimately must, (and will), fix up to Israel’s military dominance– that Gaza will be domesticated; the West Bank bantustanised; Jerusalem encircled from without, and de-Palestinianised from within– and Palestinian refugee rights will be eliminated through the aid of co-operative Gulf States.
This, effectively is the Netanyahu ‘mission accomplished’ story. And Kushner played his part, as a prime facilitator.
This grand narrative collapsed with the current clashes in Jerusalem, Gaza and inside the Green Line. Not in a basic way, but in such a way that is far more extensive than most in the western sphere appear ready to acknowledge. (Not remarkably, Netanyahu frantically has been trying to revive the ‘Iran hazard’ narrative, to divert from the more essential long-term crisis dealing with Israelis).
Simply as the very nature, and size, of the U.S. warfare state straight triggers entropy in America– so too, this ‘mission achieved’ mantra has resulted in a considerable entropy in Israel: Its people have actually gone to sleep, blindfolded by years of such propaganda. The Israeli Jewish political class– from centre-left to hard-right– swallowed it whole. It represents a phenomenon several years in the making, however was accelerated, and put on steroids during the Trump era, when the power and platform of the U.S. government became the echo chamber of the Israeli Right.
What is the point here? A study carried out by direct polls in Israel, found that 72% of Israelis didn’t want Israel to work out a cease fire– they wanted the attacks to continue. But why should this be so considerable?
It is not only since it shows how much the Netanyahu’s ‘mission achieved’ meme has actually been internalised (defeat must be burnt into the Palestinian psyche through the rubble that the IDF wrought in Gaza); however rather due to the fact that this survey points to the true nature of the ‘corner’, into which Israelis have been painted by Netanyahu and Kushner.
What took place, as Shir Hever underscores, is that “Palestinian citizens of Israel [typically called 1948 Palestinians] went on a strike. [This was the] first time given that the ’30s, that there was a strike on the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and inside the borders of Israel— [It] showed a level of unity and solidarity that we haven’t seen before. This struck a lot of worry into Jewish Israeli society– to see Palestinians united more than ever before … This unity cost them a lot. Thousands of Palestinians were fired for going on that strike”.
Why? What is going on? What occurred is that “the liberal message of the liberal Zionists has totally collapsed. There was this sort of pledge, which is a mirage, that if the Palestinians are great residents, if they’re faithful, if they don’t discuss politics too much, eventually they would be permitted to integrate into Israeli society– and have much better civil services and job chances and so on”.
‘Simply hang in there: In one or two generations, you’re going to be great’. This was a lie, of course– for now it is very clear that it was a lie, and the factor that it’s so clear is since the Netanyahu government made no pretence of working towards equality; however rather, was intent on asphyxiating the Palestinian issue in toto: The ‘world proceeded’.
The Israeli Right is still clear: They state this is a state where just Jews can have equivalent rights and full rights– just Jews. So if you’re not a Jew, you have no hope of equality because state. Which indicates that Palestinian citizens of Israel comprehend they too need to resist.
The Palestinian population inside Israel have long faced structural discrimination, however that discrimination now has been institutionalised into law (with the Nation State Law of 2018), causing Israel’s principal human rights organization B’Tselem, as well as Human Rights See, designating Israel and the territories it controls (inhabits) as being guilty of the criminal offense of apartheid under international law.
The reaction from such statements determining apartheid “is very, extremely violent, aggressive” (Shir Hever again), “and we’re seeing this [once again] … whenever there is a bombardment of Gaza. There are some anti-war presentations in Israel. Some lefty Jews are organizing presentations, for instance, in Jerusalem, not far from where I used to live, in so-called Paris Square, where ‘Ladies in Black’ utilized to stand every Friday, in protest at the profession”.
“Now– recently, a bunch of lefty Israelis arranged a presentation against the bombardment of Gaza, in Paris Square, and the police came up to them, and stated there are a thousand armed right-wing Israelis coming in this manner. They’re going to be here in a couple of minutes. We are not going to protect you. If you want to stay, do whatever you desire. The police left, and of course, the protestors didn’t remain. It would have been a massacre. And this has actually never happened before”.
“I believe what we see now is a post-traumatic society which is responding with extreme worry, violence and bigotry towards Palestinians many of all, however not just towards Palestinians. There’s likewise a great deal of hate between various groups within Israeli society. It’s not just the Orthodox and the nonreligious, because you have national orthodox and ultra-orthodox, you have Zionist ultra-orthodox and anti-Zionist ultra-orthodox. The tensions are extremely high”, Shir Hever warns.
Did most Israelis (i.e. the 72%) understand what activated the clashes with Hamas?
“I believe they comprehend it on a much deeper level. Jerusalem was chosen by Netanyahu to begin this [chain of occasions that began with rockets fired at Jerusalem], due to the fact that Netanyahu knew that he has till a certain date to form a government [however he was unable so to do] So the possibility to form a government was passed to his main opponent, which is Yair Lapid from the opposition.
“At that moment, Netanyahu understood that if he triggers some type of security crisis, the union talks are going to break apart. Lapid will not be able to form his coalition. Which means there’s going to be another election, a 5th election within a two year duration. And Netanyahu will remain the interim prime minister once again– and as long as he’s doing that, he can not go to jail. And he has an extremely severe corruption trial going on against him. So everyone comprehends that. The remarkable thing is that you have political celebrations that are attempting to develop a coalition. They had the coalition talks. They knew that they have a majority. They were simply straightening out the details. And then the police got in Sheikh Jarrah, then the authorities went into Al-Aqsa, and they understood exactly what was going on. They comprehended exactly what Netanyahu was doing, but they didn’t attempt to state a word. Not one of them stated, oh, this is just a political, negative manoeuvre by Netanyahu to avoid us from forming a federal government, because if they had actually stated that, they would brand name themselves as leftists. And you can’t have a worse tag in Israel than being a leftist now– it resembles being called a communist in the ’50s.”
The point here is that this is the new ‘reality’ Netanyahu has actually built, and it will out-survive him. Obviously, the Palestinians– by themselves– do not represent an existential hazard to Jews in Israel. (There is, however, much effort used up to convince people that they are precisely such a threat.)
The Palestinians do, however, posture a genuine, existential hazard to apartheid: “I think when the worry comes from having a colonial society where you know that you are possibly part of this hegemonic group within that society, but actually you’re the minority. Jews are a minority in the entire area of Israel Palestine, and they [Jews] know that. And they understand that if Palestinians merge, they risk losing all their opportunities. So that is a different sort of worry. And it’s an incapacitating worry … And the only thing that has kept Israel in some way glued together, has actually been Netanyahu’s populism”.
Now that Netanyahu’s ‘mission achieved’ bubble– including the part of the storyline was that Arabs inside Israel were going through a process of Israelisation, delinked from any Palestinian identity– was popped by Hamas last month. It leaves Israel to face its own internal demons. And the reality of those satanic forces is disturbing– as Zvi Bar’el acknowledges in Haaretz:
In Israel, the ‘glue’ holding it together is coming unstuck in the middle of profound internal animosities. The state slowly is morphing into an entity in which companies, religions, ethnic minorities and gangs become the genuine rulers of the nation. The physical and legal area controlled by the Israeli federal government covers only picked portions of it. Each of the autonomies has a system of self-rule. One that withdraws a fortune from the state coffers; yet is allowed to do with it whatever it desires– and to decree its own rules and regulations.
The crisis, however, is much bigger than the disintegration of the Israeli body-politic– It is a crisis that Israel is only just starting to value, as the Netanyahu thrall fades. The core of it is that there is no solution.
Jews are a minority between ‘the river and the sea’. The prospects of a two-state option are damaged: Oslo’s essential pillars– that demography alone would compel Israel to execute a 2 states result; that Palestinian security co-operation would relieve Israeli hesitations to back a Palestinian state; and thirdly, that a Palestinian state would bring an end to profession– all these crucial presumptions have proved incorrect, over the last two decades and more.
And a one-state solution has been hobbled by the Victory narrative of the new Right, and the empowerment of street level racist conservative thuggery among Israeli Jews (to which authorities turn a blind eye), particularly with Netanyahu promoting and securing the entry of the Kahanists and Otzma Yehudit into the Knesset after the current election. The pushed away 1948 Palestinians now stand joined with Hamas. A one-state option, in theory, might see the unitary state governed by Hamas.
All of which returns us to our preliminary point, and to the bigger story– which is that Iran may be on the cusp of a memorable directional change. We may see this as part of a progressive conditioning of the Arc of Resistance which links Iran, individuals’s Mobilization Systems in Iraq with Syria, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen– and, now, a more unified Palestine. Or, we might observe it through the lens of an Israel decomposing into existential crisis, with no solution to the dilemma of which it (or Netanyahu and Trump) might be said to be the author.
Hamas’ technique during the current episode was carefully co-ordinated with the IRGC and Hizbullah. Its’ goal was to enforce brand-new guidelines of engagement on Israel– leap-frogging beyond tactical goals pertaining to Gaza. The aim was to produce a deterrence to Israeli actions– across the whole Palestinian spectrum– and further, for Hamas to end up being the protector of al-Aqsa, and of the Holy City, Jerusalem. It represents the Resistance’s ‘option’, as it were.
Sayed Hassan Nasrallah, who typically speaks as the authoritative voice of the Resistance Axis, resolved Israel. He alerted: “you must be aware that breaching Al-Quds and Al-Aqsa mosque stands unlike any other offense you practice … The enemy’s leadership should examine its computations after the war on Gaza … and any violation to Al-Aqsa or Islamic sanctities in basic, shall not be faced by the resistance in Gaza, standing alone. But rather, the new equation must be regional war for Al-Quds”. He stressed that “ought to Islamic and Christian sanctities face hazards, there will be no red lines”.
A justification at the al-Aqsa enclosure by one or other of the severe Settler cults, is not probable– it is unavoidable.
Therefore, we might be at the cusp of a memorable shift– that, one way or another, might upend all regional certainties.