August 9, 2021
Viewed as a complex non-linear system, the pandemic varinants can just be managed by significantly pruning the physical connections between disparate worldwide groups, which suggests successfully ending the unrestricted circulation of people around the world.
Simply a few days after the main recognition of the pandemic in late January, 2020, Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, and Nassim Taleb published a short paper, Systemic Threat of Pandemic Via Novel Pathogens which considered pandemics as complex systems.
Seen through the lens of complex systems, 2 functions of pathogens are substantial: 1) whether asymptomatic individuals can carry and send the pathogen, and 2) the contagiousness of the pathogen, i.e., its rate of spreading, which is generally determined by the “reproductive ratio R0– the variety of cases one case generates on average throughout its infectious period in an otherwise uninfected population.”
In this pandemic, the pathogen can be transferred by asymptomatic individuals, both vaccinated and unvaccinated, and the pathogen is highly infectious.
CDC study shows 74% of people infected in Massachusetts Covid break out were completely vaccinated (CNBC.com)
I went to a party with 14 other immunized people; 11 people got COVID (baltimoresun.com)
The authors sum up the problem thusly:
“Clearly, we are dealing with a severe fat-tailed process owing to an increased connectivity, which increases the spreading in a nonlinear way. Fat trailed procedures have special characteristics, making conventional risk-management techniques insufficient.” (emphasis included)
Simply put, by hyper-connecting human groups via flight, the Worldwide Village has actually guaranteed non-linear spreading of the pathogen and its variations. The authors’ conclusion results from the understanding of pandemics as complicated non-linear systems:
” Multiscale population approaches consisting of drastically pruning contact networks using cumulative boundaries and social behavior modification, and neighborhood self-monitoring, are vital.”
If the only systemic method to address pandemics of this nature is to considerably prune contact networks and reduce mobility, that suggests restricting the international circulation of millions of people, likewise referred to as worldwide tourist and service travel.
As I noted in Virus Z: An Idea Experiment (July 1, 2021), pathogen populations within individuals are a reservoir which create mutations, some number of which end up being substantial.
As a function of large numbers (billions of pathogens mutating in millions of individual providers), the number of variants will increase gradually. This suggests a future of The Red Queen’s Race in which authorities try to revaccinate numerous countless individuals versus one version even as 5, 10 or more new variations emerge in the time required to revaccinate numerous countless individuals.
As the media short articles above file, current vaccines are not sterilizing vaccines that eliminate that pathogen from each immunized individual, nor do they remove the spread of the pathogen from vaccinated people to other vaccinated individuals.
Considered as a intricate non-linear system, the pandemic variants can only be managed by significantly pruning the physical connections in between disparate global groups, which suggests effectively ending the unrestricted flow of individuals around the world. This would effectively end global tourist and company travel, as even a small number of asymptomatic carriers which get away detection could introduce a brand-new version to which the house population is susceptible.
It’s not politics or economics, it’s just intricate non-linear systems and reasoning.
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