Doing 90 miles per hour on Deadman’s Curve: A Couple Of Thoughts on Risk

When the wreck is recovered, witnesses will question why they took such heedless, silly risks.

You remain in the rear seats wedged in between tipsy revelers, the driver is drunk and heading into Deadman’s Curve at 90 miles per hour. No one’s anxious because the chauffeur has never ever crashed. Prior to they moved into blissful incoherence, the other guests answered your doubts with stats and quite charts showing that the driver had never had a mishap, so there was nothing to worry about.

They also said that the driver’s Uncle Fed had actually rigged the lorry with an anti-accident gadget, so a crash was difficult. One passenger blurted out that a fellow named Goldy Sacks stated the motorist could easily “melt up” and take Deadman’s Curve at 120 miles per hour with no difficulty.

You see the issue here: the risk of crashing and expiring is skyrocketing however the giddy residents are completely positive there’s no threat, and this self-confidence is the source of the danger. If you make certain Uncle Fed’s gadget can protect the lorry from any crash, then why not take Deadman’s Curve at 90 miles per hour?

And if Goldy Sacks says you could really take it at 120 miles per hour, then taking it at 90 MPH is actually quite prudent and careful.

This confidence influences significant risk-taking that eventually ends very badly for all the revelers. The paradox is rich: the higher the confidence, the greater the danger, the higher the danger, the greater the odds of a crash. The greater the threats being taken, the greater the odds that the crash will be fatal to all residents.

The confidence in Uncle Fed’s security device is delusional since it’s never been checked. The truth that the motorist hasn’t crashed doesn’t mean the threat is low or Uncle Fed’s device works perfectly, it merely implies luck has actually been on the motorist’s side.

It also doesn’t mean the driver can take Deadman’s Curve at 90 MPH with no risk. It simply means the motorist hasn’t taken on more threat than he can manage until now.

When the wreck is recovered, witnesses will wonder why they took such heedless, foolish threats. What they couldn’t understand is the residents were all giddily positive that a crash was impossible no matter how terrific the risks. So why not take more danger?

Undoubtedly. This makes best sense: if a crash is impossible, then by all methods take Deadman’s Curve at 120 MILES PER HOUR.

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