Mass-data cloud analysis has ended up being the brand-new type method operandi, vice basing forecasts on a psychological profiling of others’ inherent natures.
What we have been experiencing started on 3 December 2021 when the Washington Post indicated a massing of Russian soldiers for an intrusion of Ukraine. The Post enhanced its case by showcasing huge varieties of Russian soldiers.
Biden duly enacted ‘true believer’ (it is possible that he is), buying the current evacuations from embassies in Ukraine and Belarus. He told President Zelensky in late January that Kiev would almost certainly be ‘sacked’ which many would die; “brace for effect” at some point soon, probably in February, he cautioned.
Then came the unanticipated jolt: The Ukrainian President– America’s guy; America’s ally– said: ‘Cut it out. It’s not true’. You’re panicking individuals. At that moment, the Biden invasion story wobbled, and may have crashed. Kiev was playing it very cool, whilst Washington and London were still in a craze.
The Biden Team felt that Zelensky had flubbed his efficiency; he appeared to be unaware of his proper role. “We’re his essential ally and he’s poking us in the eye– and developing daylight in between Washington and Kyiv”, stated a senior administration official. “It’s self-sabotage more than anything else”.
What is more surprising is that the Biden Team was so shocked. Biden had actually currently ruled: ‘No American boots on the ground’. Kiev Embassies were being cleared and relocated to Lviv near the Polish border– leaving the unmistakeable image of an Ukraine formally deserted by the West. Jake Sullivan then doubled-down, doing the Sunday television talk-shows, saying the invasion could happen anytime.
What was anticipated from Zelensky? To buy the armed forces to prepare to fight the Russian army, as western authorities, soldiers, and businessmen all left? In fact, apart from oligarchs running away in their personal jets, Ukraine is remarkably peaceful; there is unease, yes, but Kiev dining establishments are complete.
So, why this persistence that Russia certainly would attack, particularly when Moscow repeated ad infinitum that there was no such plan, and there were undoubtedly sound factors to think Moscow (100,000 soldiers might be enough to invade a country; it is not almost enough numbers subsequently to inhabit it)?
Did the U.S. really have secret intelligence to support the invasion meme; or additionally, existed some intelligence fabricator out there somewhere, doing a Curveball!.?.!?(Representative ‘Curveball’ fabricated reports of Saddam Hussein’s mobile bio-labs producing weapons of mass damage in the lead approximately the 2006 Iraq war and we have actually seen that has happened since in Iraq … ).
The Anglo-sphere ‘came-on highly’: On 11 February, Sullivan stated the U.S. was ‘seeing indications’ of Russian escalation which there was a “reliable possibility” of instant military action. Other officials stated the statement was triggered by new intelligence that signaled an intrusion might start as soon as Wednesday 16 February. Boris Johnson followed suit, too. And Blinken is still at it.
However this invasion prediction, American authorities stated, was extremely different from others. Washington’s claims about Russia’s troop buildup had been confirmed by commercial satellite imagery of a quality formerly not available. The details of Moscow’s secret disinformation plots, it was alleged, were in line with the Kremlin’s propaganda projects that play out on social networks platforms– and had actually been tracked by independent researchers.
“We have found out a lot, specifically since 2014, about how Russia uses the info space as part of its overall security and military device,” stated Emily Horne, spokeswoman for the NSC. “And we have actually discovered a lot about how to deny them impact because space.” “I think it is fantastic,” added Beth Sanner, a previous leading intelligence official who regularly informed President Trump. “My guess is that these disclosures are freaking the Kremlin and the security services out”.
Really? From what we understand, they appear to be jesting at Western hysteria in the Kremlin, more than ‘freaking-out’. However haven’t we heard this “this time it’s various” story before? Is this not Afghanistan repeated? Remember that Afghanistan was turned into a testbed for each single development in technocratic project management, with each development declared as precursor to our larger future. Big information, AI and the usage of ever broadening sets of technical and statistical metrics, were to topple old ‘stodgy’ assessment. Military sociology and other ingenious productions were let loose to bring order to mayhem.
Well, we know how that huge data-AI intelligence method ended. It folded in days, in a big débacle. And now we are informed Ukraine’s mooted intrusion analysis derives from business images and AI-led multiple-variable analysis of the Russian usage of the ‘details space’. “A much more essential lesson, according to former officials, was Russia’s disturbance in the 2016 U.S. election”.
Is the U.S. really analyzing Moscow’s present objectives towards Ukraine from this old de-bunked 2016 chestnut? (Shades of the ‘Team B’ intelligence team fraud, throughout the Cock Cheney years in which it was declared that understanding the deep nature implanted in Russians, displaced the requirement for evidential intelligence).
How come this shift to mass information, cloud computing (apart from fashion, that is)? Possibly it is connected to the following (per NYT):
“U.S. counterintelligence authorities warned [in October] every C.I.A. station and base worldwide, about troubling numbers of informants hired to spy for the United States being caught or eliminated … C.I.A.’s counterintelligence mission center had actually taken a look at dozens of cases in the last a number of years … The cable television highlighted the struggle the spy agency is having as it works to hire spies all over the world in challenging operating environments. In recent years, adversarial intelligence services in countries such as Russia, China, Iran and Pakistan have been searching down the C.I.A.’s sources and in many cases turning them into double agents” (Emphasis added).
“To comprehend the Biden Group thinking on Ukraine [however], we need to return to April”, Teacher David Hendrickson argues. “When the first excellent U.S. scare about a Russian invasion occurred– in the preceding year, substantially, Azerbaijan had actually demonstrated in its conflict with Armenia, that Turkish and Israeli drones might smash established positions and thrashing the defenders. The Atlantic Council, the eyrie of Washington’s Ukraine hawks, immediately kept in mind the importance of this demonstrated brand-new ability– to the frozen conflict in the Donbas”.
“The recent dispute in the South Caucasus was a clash in between Azerbaijan’s twenty-first century strategies and Armenia’s twentieth century military. The result was a thrashing. NATO member Turkey’s superior military training and devices gave Azerbaijan a decisive edge and totally overwhelmed Armenian forces with their Russian training and materials”, the Atlantic piece argued.
“The brand-new team at the White House, carefully following a script revealed by the Atlantic Council, stated that Crimea and the Donbas should be returned on the table. That implied, as explained by a Biden official, a “very extensive and almost consistent concentrate on Ukraine– from day one.”
Is this Atlantic Council idea– that the Azeri-Armenian dispute offers a plan for Ukraine to utilize Turkish drones to defeat the Donbas forces– at the root of today’s invasion dream? Especially, on 3 April 2021, Ukraine’s military revealed on Facebook that military workouts would be carried out with 5 NATO powers in Ukraine’s eastern areas later on in the year: “In particular,” it stated, “defensive actions will be exercised, in order to bring back the state border …”.
(Professor Hendrickson once again): “Russia’s callup of reserves– which both now and in April, was analyzed by U.S. intelligence as showing plans for a gigantic invasion– [which was stated to be] in direct action to these three important developments: a ‘shocking new presentation’ of the efficiency of drone-led offending operations, a new U.S. posture towards Ukraine-related concerns that was far more aggressive than Trump’s, and the declaration by Ukraine’s military that they were working on a strategy to drive the Russians out of the occupied territories”.
Nevertheless, “when Biden stated in December that the United States would not devote forces to Ukraine in the event of a war, he cut the legs from under this plan”.
“The United States now emphatically denies that there was any idea of retaking the Donbas by force, and that this is a creation of Russian propagandists … [However] It is obvious that Ukraine’s armed force has actually sought an Azerbaijani-like capability in the previous year, and little doubt that the United States has facilitated the acquisition of it. However it is similarly apparent that no such strategy can be put in motion, if the U.S. attitude is what Biden and Blinken said it remained in December”– no U.S. boots on the ground.
“The Ukrainians had actually been positive about getting such a promise from the Americans during the previous year– that is, getting an American backstop if they looked for to regain their lost territories by force, replaying the Georgia option of 2008; however this time with American guarantees. Their hopes were now deflated. Hence Zelensky’s taunt: simply tell straight out that we can not sign up with NATO: That is, that you intend to leave us in the lurch with regard to our lost areas”.
With the passing– quietly– of the 16 February date for the mooted Russian invasion, it appears Biden was incorrect and Zelensky was right, though Biden– and Blinken this Thursday at the UN Security Council– doubled down again, even to the degree of raising the hoary old spectre of a false-flag usage of chemical weapons. There will be no Russian invasion of Ukraine, although the circumstance is adequately laden that clashes within Ukraine in between the parties could quickly speed up a broader crisis in which Russia would support Donbas, however not through invasion. One concern remains: What was this’imminent intrusion’really about? Did Jake Sullivan et al believe in their data-driven invasion narrative(absent more strong structures)
, or was that all that it was: the crafting a meme to dominate the info area– to the benefit of Biden and his survey rankings– and to distract from his domestic imperfections? That undoubtedly, is exactly what Nancy Pelosi is stating:”Well, I believe we have to be prepared for it. And that is what the president is– yes, I do think that he is prepared for an invasion. I also understand why the President of Ukraine wishes to keep people calm and that he desires his economy not to suffer. But, on the other hand, if we were not threatening the sanctions, and the rest,
. They have, nevertheless, disappointed themselves adept in the diplomacy field. Perhaps initially, they toyed a while with the Atlantic Council dream, however Moscow’s almost amazingly slick over night reaction to the tried coup in Kazakhstan need to have convinced Group Biden that the former was undoubtedly
pure dream. Perhaps then, they chose to choose dream alone. (There was not much else to leverage). And this Kazakhstan wobble (after the Zelensky “Cut it out “retort)appears to have actually triggered Group Biden to embrace 2 oppositional poles, at the same time: One, pointing towards a posture of total hostility and suspicion towards Putin, including personally; and a second one– super-cautious, stopping up until now short of war that the Ukrainians feel deserted. This method is not working well for the Ukrainians– nor for an increasingly sceptical Europe. By any yardstick, this has not been a felicitous piece of work. Team Biden will likely stick with trying to dominate the info area with its intrusion meme and will continue to declare that any non-invasion proves how they successfully deterred Putin. The ethical of this episode was encapsulated by an insightful American teacher who told me some years ago that the U.S. management had practically totally lost the capability for compassion.’Otherness ‘had actually become ‘a closed book’.
Russia, China and Iran were incomprehensible missing any empathy, but America’s élites had pertained to believe that just if they collected enough mass-data points, they might make up for this lack of empathy, and would have the ability to forecast and forecast Russian or Iranian intentions. In other words, mass-data cloud analysis has actually become the new’Team B’type modus operandi, vice basing forecasts on a mental profiling of others’ natural natures.