“You do not believe in the principle of indivisible security? Fine. Now we dictate the security rhythm.”
History will sign up that the birth of the baby twins– Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics– just a couple of hours before 2/22/22, was synchronised to the birth of the real, 21st century multipolar world.
As my columns have actually worried for a few years now, Vladimir Putin has actually been carefully supporting his inner Sun Tzu. And now it’s all in the open: “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
The thunderbolt was months in the procedure of being diligently polished. To paraphrase Lenin, who “developed Ukraine” (copyright Putin), we did live many decades in just these previous couple of days. Everything began with the in-depth needs of security guarantees sent to the Americans, which Moscow understood would be rejected. Then there was the Russia-China joint declaration at the start of the Winter season Olympics– which codifies not only the strategic partnership but likewise the essential tenets of the multipolar world.
The culmination was a sensational, nearly one hour-long address to the country by Putin quickly after the Russian Security Council live session pondering on the ask for independence by the DPR and the LPR (here is a condensed version.)
A couple of hours later on, at an emergency situation UN Security Council conference, Russian Permanent Agent Vasily Nebenzya exactly laid out why the acknowledgment of the child twins does not bury the Minsk arrangements.
The baby twins in fact declared their self-reliance in Might 2014. In 2015 they signed the Minsk arrangements as one of the interested celebrations. In theory they could even be back within Ukraine if Kiev would ever choose to respect the agreements, which will never take place due to the fact that the U.S. has banned it since 2015. Moreover, the people of Donbass do not want to be subjected to a regime harboring neo-Nazis.
As Nebenzya detailed, “I would like to remind you that at the time of the conclusion of the Minsk arrangements, the LPR and DPR had currently stated independence. The truth that Russia today acknowledged it does not alter the composition of the parties to the Minsk agreements, considering that Russia is not one (…) Another thing is that the Minsk contracts have actually long been freely screwed up by Ukraine under the auspices of our Western colleagues. Now we see that numerous coworkers want to sign that the Minsk contracts are dead. But this is not the case (…) We are still available to diplomacy, but we do not plan to allow a new bloody massacre in the Donbass.”
And here’s the clincher, directly addressing imperial assistance for the killing of ethnic Russians in Donbass: “The main job of our decision [on recognizing self-reliance] was to preserve and safeguard these lives. This is more crucial than all your threats.”
There you go: Obligation to Safeguard (R2P), a concept developed by the Americans to launch wars, used by Russia for preventing one.
That licensed nullity, German chancellor Scholz, deriding Putin’s characterization of a genocide in Donbass as “absurd”, was a definitive factor in the birth of the infant wins. Putin, in his address to the country, especially took some time to information the Odessa massacre: “We can not however tremble when we keep in mind about the circumstance in Odessa, when people were burned alive (…) And those wrongdoers who did this, they are not punished (…) But we understand their names, and we will do everything to punish them (…) and to bring them to justice.”
What about China?
Geopolitically, in Eurasian terms, two big concerns stand out: the function of the CSTO and the action from China.
If we look at the Article 19, Chapter VI of the CSTO charter, we learn that, “any state sharing the goals and concepts of the Company and being ready to undertake the obligations including in this Charter and other international treaties and resolutions reliable within the framework of the Organization may become a member of the Organization.”
That would unlock for the infant twins, as soon as they have finalized all the administrative undertakings pertaining to brand-new, independent countries, to request CSTO subscription. By the way, CSTO secretary-general Pashinian has already gone to Moscow to discuss it.
China is a way more intricate proposal. One of the essential tenets of Beijing’s diplomacy is the battle versus separatism– embedded in the foundation of the SCO. So Beijing can not possibly acknowledge the child twins, or what would total up to Novorossiya– yes, Putin did pronounce the magic word– prior to Kiev itself does or, a major possibility, entirely breaks down.
The Foreign Ministry so far has actually been incredibly cautious. Wang Yi has actually repeated “China’s long-standing position that the legitimate security issues of all countries must be respected, and the purposes & concepts of the UN Charter must be promoted.”
Further on down the road, most likely after some severe exchanges in between Wang Yi and Lavrov, China can always discover myriad methods to unofficially assist the child twins– consisting of advancing BRI-related connection and sustainable development projects.
When it comes to Kiev disintegration, that’s directly connected to Moscow requiring the instant stop of the mini-blitzkrieg against Donbass, otherwise they will bear complete duty. Yes, routine stalwarts will be hunted and punished– total with a possible War Crimes Tribunal. No surprise all sorts of oligarchic/political rats, big and little, are scooting away, to Lviv, Poland and the UK.
The Munich impact
The intervention of all 12 members at the Security Council session, combined with Putin’s address to the nation was the things of grasping geopolitical drama. Putin’s body movement and the appearance in his eyes affirmed to the immense gravity of the minute– and it all pertained to the leading edge when he embarked in a succinct history lesson covering a century.
Barely containing his anger at the countless ways Russia has been damned by the West, and taking no detainees when referring to communism, what primarily stood apart was the well-defined rendition of the insurmountable antagonism in between the Anglo-American islands and the civilizational Heartland– or the clash in between maritime powers and land powers. That Eurasia classic was the bulk of his exposition: the acknowledgment of the infant twins took less than 3 minutes.
The Munich Security Conference, this previous weekend, had actually made it all so explicit. Munich, as scary as it remained in regards to a congregation of headless chickens posing as eagles, a minimum of validated whatever is in the open.
The opponent is Russia. NATO boundless expansion– to outer space– is against Russia. And after that we had a parade of add-on threats: no disarmament in Eastern Europe, cutting off the Russian economy from the EU, end of Nord Stream 2, Ukraine in NATO, world order constructed on “universal liberal values”.
Munich defined No Compromise Whatsoever– which was precisely what Putin, Lavrov, Patrushev and co. anticipated, the warmongering rhetoric burying any meaningful conversation of migration, inflation, cyber wars, the European energy crisis and, of course, the only thing that matters for the MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressional-intelligence-media-academia-think tank complex, as defined by Ray McGovern): let’s milk this Eurotrash lot for untold billions in new agreements, let’s separate Russia, let’s ruin Nord Stream 2 to offer them our ultra costly LNG, let’s keep them on a leash– permanently.
So actually it’s not even war against Russia: the $30 trillion-indebted Empire with a woke military attached merely might not manage it. Not to discuss the licensed go crazy in case they get a call from Mr. Khinzal and Mr. Zircon : cue to the spectacular Russian display of “military and technical” supremacy, hypersonic and otherwise– staged, irony of paradoxes, in synch with the circus in Munich.
What we have here is so lame: simply a lowlife offer-you-can’t-refuse racket to be caused on the EU.
The Indivisible Security dance
The wild Munich “No Compromise” program; the imperially-ordered Ukro crypto-blitzkrieg versus Donbass; and the role of the U.S. Absence of Intelligence Neighborhood— an Andrei Martyanov-coined howler– completely sealed the deal for the Security Council deliberations and Putin’s decision.
Considering the ideological stupidity of the current Brussels gang– Stoltenberg, von der Leyen, Borrell–, incapable of understanding even fundamental economics, the truth remains that the EU without Russian energy is doomed. Martyanov stresses the algorithm: Russia can pay for the break up with Europe. Europe can not. The U.S. just wants to gather. And we’re not even speaking about the alarming, incoming implications of the systemic crisis across NATOstan.
Even as Moscow plays a very long, calculated game, as it stands that does not always imply that Russia will be “winning” the child twins while “losing” Europe. Russia’s tactical swing repeatedly baffles the Atlanticist combination. The U.S. lack of intelligence community was forecasting a Russian “hostility” every other day– and still is. Instead they got the baby twins as the latest independent republics of the Global South.
Even before Munich, the Ukro crypto-blitzkrieg, and the acknowledgment of the baby twins, Moscow had once again cautioned it may react with “military and technical steps”to guarantee its own security after the U.S. and NATO blatantly disregarded key points from its proposition for a long-lasting European security architecture, and instead “cherry-picked” problems from a package deal.
Moscow will not let the Americans run away from the by now infamous 10-page Russian reaction. Putin, attending to the Stavka, had currently warned “we remain in a scenario (…) where we are required to resolve it.” Which bring us to what John Helmer niftly certified as Russia’s black box defense. The beauty is no one understands what’s inside the black box.
Go into, as soon as again, the “military-technical measures” that will be “reciprocal” (Putin) to what U.S. and NATOstan are already releasing versus Russia. They will not always be implemented in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, in the airspace above Donbass, even in the online world. It could be anywhere– from the Syrian theater to Latin America.
Surprise! That’s what strategic ambivalence, ambiguity, or– let’s get down to the rhythm– swing is everything about. You don’t believe in the principle of indivisible security? Fine. Now we determine the security rhythm. You’re not gon na stop releasing nuclear weapons outside your area? Fine. Here’s some reciprocity. You’re not gon na accept legally binding guarantees of our security? Fine. Meet our “military-technical” procedures.
Now dance, suckers.