However alas, people do not possess god-like powers, they only possess hubris, therefore all bubbles pop: the more severe the bubble, the more ravaging the pop.
Long cycles operate at such a glacial rate they’re quickly dismissed as either inventions of fevered imagination or this time it’s different.
However given that Nature and human nature remain stubbornly grounded by the usual characteristics, cycles eventually turn and the world modifications significantly. No one believes the cyclical turn is possible until it’s already well underway.
Several long cycles are kipping down unison:
1. The cycle of interest rates: down for 40+ years (last turn, 1981), now up for an unidentified however substantial amount of time.
2. The cycle of inflation/ deflation: the 40-year period of low real-world inflation and rip-roaring speculative debt-asset inflation has actually ended and now a period of scarcity, real-world inflation and speculative debt-asset deflation begins.
3. The cycle of capital-labor balance: capital has actually dominated labor for 40+ years, siphoning $50 trillion from labor. This cycle has actually now turned and the rebalancing is underway: it’s capital’s turn to give up gains and power.
4. The cycle of social order-disorder: as documented by historian Peter Turchin and others, social order (in Turchin’s expression, the integrative stage) holds sway for about 50 years and after that it paves the way to an age of social condition (the disintegrative stage). This stage doesn’t end with moderate reforms no one even notifications, it ends with a rebalancing of social, political and economic power.
5. The cycle of wealth/power inequality: wealth– and the political power it purchases– ends up being increasingly concentrated in the hands of the few at the cost of the lots of. This feeds financial and political dysfunction and exploitation that must be corrected by decreasing extremes of wealth-power inequality.
6. The cycle of speculative excess: those in power secure their wealth and the wealth of their cronies by setting up ethical threat, the detach of threat and repercussion: the main state and reserve bank backstop and bail out the most outright big speculators, who keep all their gains and transfer their losses to the general public.
The general public concludes the only method to get ahead in such a rigged financial system is to tummy up to the gaming tables and gamble that the next bubble will never pop due to the fact that those in power will not ever let it pop.
But alas, human beings do not possess god-like powers, they just possess hubris, and so all bubbles pop: the more extreme the bubble, the more ravaging the pop. The faint sobs that fade to silence are: but this time it’s various! and the Fed will conserve us! That’s not how cycles work: all the god-like powers are exposed as hubris, which arouses the fatal ire of Nemesis.
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